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02. planning

Scenarios for the future

Defining strategic directions for long-term development on a timeline.

Do you want to know how to build scenarios for the future?

Goal

Outline the vectors of long-term development based on the adaptation of trends, signals of change and impact factors.

By building scenarios for the future, we can identify the conditions, consequences and possibilities of upcoming changes, and determine what factors will drive business and offer competitive advantage.

  • IN-DEPTH WORKSHOP A practical evaluation of the information collected from trends (pattern identification) and finding ways of responding to them. Joint interpretation of insights and foresights
  • SCENARIOS FOR THE FUTURE A study to help organize ideas about alternative future environments and their consequences and opportunities for the organization, company, industry, area, product and/or service

Key activities

  • define research areas and key issues and contexts for the organization and the project
  • develop a diagram to analyze one or more forces influencing the functioning of the organization and the industry
  • launch qualitative research to supplement and deepen the knowledge for the project (e.g. expert interviews, generative research with users, field research: trade fairs, events, seminars, dedicated desk research)
  • map the consequences of trends (implications) to identify changes they will bring about

Key results

  • defining strategic foresights - consumer, industry and environment predictions and perspectives for the future. They result from in-depth research
  • dedicated research and analytic tools relevant for the scale and ambitions of the project. Criteria for developing scenarios for the future
  • presentation of scenarios for the future - visions of future opportunities and development paths, strategic narratives composed of insights and foresights
  • defining decisions, opportunities and risks of the organization and the relationships between them over selected time horizons (now, next, beyond)

How can we cooperate?

  • we recommend a model based on the Lean Startup and Futures Thinking approach, the aim of which is to involve users and experts in the research and design process
  • cooperation involves weekly sprints, taking place in a hybrid model: offline (Ergodesign Hub space) or online
  • Sprint Review is a session held to summarize a Sprint and determine actions for the next one
  • we recommend that decision-makers should be involved in the design process and a project leader should be appointed

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